三泰虎

为何印度的新冠确诊病例和死亡病例如此少

 Why does India have so few Covid-19 cases and deaths?

为何印度的新冠确诊病例和死亡病例如此少?

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India is four times more populous than the US, but has just 2% the number of cases and only 1.5% of the number of Covid-19 deaths. How has the country, whose per capita income is just tenth of the US, avoided being flattened by the pandemic?

印度人口是美国人口的四倍,但印度的新冠肺炎确诊病例只有美国的2%,死亡人数只有美国的1.5%。这个人均收入仅为美国十分之一的国家是如何避免被新冠疫情席卷的呢?

There are four possible explanations:

有四种可能的解释:

The epidemic may have struck later than in other countries. Since epidemics have exponential growth at the start, a small delay can have massive effects on the number of cases.

印度疫情的爆发可能比其他国家来得晚。开始时,病例数呈指数增长,稍微延迟,病例数就天差地别。

India’s 21-day lockdown may have successfully suppressed the epidemic. Physical distancing is one of the best ways to slow the epidemic and, if anything, many have criticized the lockdown for being too draconian in that regard.

印度21天的全国封城可能成功控制住了疫情。社交疏离是减缓疫情蔓延的最佳方式之一。但许多人批评封城太过严苛。

India has not been able to test enough to count all cases and deaths. Without sufficient testing, many deaths may not be labeled with Covid-19 for official statistics, leading to an underestimation of the severity of the crisis.

印度还无法进行足够多的检测,无法统计所有的确诊病例和死亡病例。如果没有进行足够多的检测,许多死亡病例可能不会被官方统计为新冠死亡病例,从而导致对危机严重程度的低估。

India may have protective characteristics against Covid-19. Researchers have proposed that the low share of elderly in the population, the high temperatures and humidity in India, widespread BCG vaccination for tuberculosis, or resistance to malaria have helped India escape the brunt of the pandemic.

印度可能具备针对Covid-19的防护特性。研究人员提出,老年人在印度人口中所占比例低、印度高温高湿、广泛接种卡介苗预防结核病或抵抗疟疾,这些有助于印度避开这场大流行的冲击。

First, we can rule out that India is in an early stage of the pandemic. The first infected travelers from Wuhan reached Kerala, southwest India, on January 29. While it is true that Kerala acted quickly and contained a potential outbreak, more carriers reached other states by early March.

首先,我们可以排除印度处于疫情早期阶段的可能性。1月29日,首批来自武汉的受感染旅客抵达印度西南部的喀拉拉邦。虽然喀拉拉邦迅速采取了行动并控制了潜在的爆发,但更多的病毒携带者在3月初到达了其他邦。

While the lockdown will certainly have an effect on the pandemic in India in the long run, there has not been enough time for its impact to be felt. So the current low level of deaths is really telling us about what happened before the lockdown began. Moreover, it is unclear that the lockdown has been total. Besides videos of migrants crowding the Delhi/Uttar Pradesh border or Bandra station in Mumbai waiting to go home and the news of the Tablighi Jamaat Markaz event in New Delhi (which led to a spike in cases), there is also Google Mobility data that backs this thesis. In addition, if India’s caseload is low because of the lockdown, it will not help when the lockdown ends.

虽然从长远来看,封城肯定会对印度的疫情产生影响,但目前还不足以让人们感受到它的影响。此外,目前还不清楚封锁是否全面。有视频显示德里、北方邦边境和孟买班德拉站挤满等待回家的民工,新德里发生的塔布里·扎马特事件(导致病例激增),还有谷歌流动数据,这些都说明了封城存在问题。此外,如果印度的病例数量低是因为封城,那封城结束后就于事无补了。

India, like many countries, has been unable to procure enough tests. The lack of surveillance means that many deaths due to Covid-19 may not have been classified as such. A Covid-19 death typically is confirmed by a Covid RT-PCR test. Those tests are in short supply and cost INR 4500 ($60) in India. Moreover, if an individual with Covid-like symptoms dies, but a test is not performed before his death, it does not make sense to waste scarce resources on the cadaver. Nor do officials report unconfirmed, Covid-like deaths, because there are many reasons that one may die from flu-like symptoms, and officials do not want to create panic.

与许多国家一样,印度一直无法进行足够多的检测。由于缺乏监测,许多由新冠肺炎导致的死亡可能并没有被归类为此类死亡。新冠肺炎死亡通常由Covid RT-PCR检测确认。这些检测在印度极为不足,费用为4500卢比(60美元)。此外,如果一个人出现疑似症状,但死前没有进行检测,那就没有意义对尸体进行检测了。官员们也不会报告未经证实的、疑似死亡病例,因为他们不想制造恐慌。

This leaves the intriguing possibility that Covid-19 will have less of an impact in India than in other countries. However, it is important to not use it as an excuse to be less vigilant. Its reproductive rate in India is around 1.8, which implies that approximately 65% percent of the population will be infected without a lockdown or vaccine. Even if India has a death rate as low as Germany’s 0.3%, two million people could die.

相比于其他国家,Covid-19对印度的影响可能会更小。但不能把这当作放松警惕的借口。在印度,如果没有封城或没有疫苗,大约65%的人口将被感染。即使印度的死亡率低至德国的0.3%,也会有200万人死亡。

With that caveat, let’s consider why the death rate may be lower in India. Initial data from China suggested that the mortality rate from Covid-19 infection is much higher among the elderly: it is 14.8% for those above 80, but just 0.2% for individuals below 39. In India, only 0.8% of the population is above 80 and nearly 75% are below the age of 40. An offsetting factor, however, is the poor health of even younger Indians. The fatality rate rises by roughly 30% if a person has cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, or hypertension. India has roughly double the rate of heart disease as Italy, and among the highest prevalence of respiratory diseases in the world. In addition, India is home to one in six people with diabetes.

我们来分析一下为什么印度的死亡率可能更低。来自中国的初步数据表明,老年人感染新冠肺炎的死亡率要高得多:80岁以上的人群,病死率为14.8%,而39岁以下的人只有0.2%。在印度,只有0.8%的人口年龄在80岁以上,将近75%的人口年龄在40岁以下。然而,不利的因素是,年轻的印度人的健康状况也很差。如果一个人患有心血管疾病、糖尿病、慢性呼吸道疾病或高血压,死亡率将上升约30%。印度的心脏病发病率大约是意大利的两倍,是世界上呼吸系统疾病发病率最高的国家之一。此外,印度六分之一的人口患糖尿病。

Another complicating factor is that India is home to many multi-generational, joint families. This structure places elderly Indians at considerable risk from catching diseases from younger family members, especially asymptomatic ones.

此外,印度有大量多代同堂的大家庭。在这种家庭,印度老年人从年轻家庭成员,特别是无症状家庭成员那里感染病毒的风险相当大。

A second explanation is that hotter temperatures in India may slow the virus. There is some evidence consistent with this theory. Countries with latitudes between 30-50 degrees above or below the equator, and average temperatures between 5 and 11 degrees celsius have, thus far, borne a higher burden from Covid. However, some preliminary research has suggested that India may face higher transmission rates during the monsoon, which is India’s flu season. Humidity may also play a role; studies have found varying results on its importance as a factor. In addition, a brand new study at Harvard has suggested that Covid-19 may not go away in warm weather as colds do, because significant parts of the population remain vulnerable to the virus. The weather alone is insufficient to protect India.

印度的高温可能会减缓病毒的传播。有一些证据与这个理论相一致。到目前为止,纬度在赤道上或赤道下30-50度之间,平均温度在5 - 11摄氏度之间的国家,疫情更严重。然而,一些初步研究表明,印度可能在季风期间面临更高的传播率,季风期间是印度的流感季。湿度也可能起作用。此外,哈佛大学一项全新的研究表明,Covid-19可能不会像感冒一样在温暖的天气里消失,大部分人仍然容易受到病毒的攻击。仅凭天气不足以保护印度。

Other explanations center on universal BCG vaccination in India, or domestic hydroxychloroquine use to combat malaria. While it is true, for instance, that countries with BCG vaccination appear so far to have less transmission, these countries are also warmer, have younger populations, and—because they are poorer—likely tested late. So it is hard to know whether there is a true link between Covid-19 and BCG or malaria burdens. Further analysis is required, though it may not come fast enough to help in this epidemic.

印度人普遍接种卡介苗,或使用羟氯喹抵抗疟疾。接种卡介苗疫苗的国家到目前为止确实传播现象较少,但这些国家的天气也更热,人口更年轻,而且由于这些国家更穷,检测可能来得更迟。因此,很难判断新冠肺炎与卡介苗或疟疾负担之间是否存在真正的联系。有必要进行进一步的分析。

Ultimately, India’s relatively light exposure to Covid-19 remains a puzzle. It may have certain characteristics that protect it from the deadliest impact, but they do not suggest that it will escape the pandemic unscathed. Great care and vigilance are still necessary.

最终,印度受疫情影响较小的原因仍然是个谜。印度可能具有某些特征,可以保护其免受最致命的影响,但并不意味着印度会毫发无损,仍需保持高度的谨慎和警惕。

美国雅虎读者的评论:

译文来源:三泰虎 http://www-santaihu-com.ccmc-cn.com/49723.html    译者:Jessica.Wu

chad

answer is simple they aren't testing

答案很简单,他们没做进行足够多的检测

 

Kyle

Their living conditions under normal circumstances probably give them super human immune systems.

他们的生活环境可能赋予了他们超出常人的免疫力啊。

 

Knew Normal

A blind eye! We don't test, we don't have cases.

睁只眼闭只眼!

不检测,当然就没人感染了。

 

MichaelS

One reason is not enoug testing?

其中一个原因是印度的检测数量不够多

 

Rob

North Korea still has 0

朝鲜的确诊病例仍为0

 

Jeffrey

It's all in how cases are counted. If a person in the U.S. perishes due to a heart attack but they tested positive for COVID-19, then their case is counted as a COVID-19 fatality.

一切都取决于统计方法。如果一个美国人死于心脏病发作,而他的COVID-19检测呈阳性,那就算作新冠肺炎死亡病例。

 

MY WORLD

This is funny when people say how they have so little. How many have they tested? How many? If they test couple hundred thousand every week you’ll see a different number.

真搞笑,印度做了多少检测?如果他们每周检测几十万人,你会看到一个截然不同的数字。

 

Jeff

It's because of their spices that they use in food.

因为印度人在食物中加了很多香料。

 

Ken

The US could have 0 CV-19 if we just tested no one.

如果美国不做检测,那确诊病例就是0

 

DeerHunter

Because they are under reporting

因为他们少报了

 

Denise

Same reason my county has less cases. My son and I had the virus and no testing was available but my doctors said we had it. If you don't test and confirm cases you will have less cases.

我们县的病例也很少,我儿子和我都感染了新冠肺炎,当时没法做检测,无法确诊,但医生说我们感染了。如果不检测,病例就少。

 

Naresh

Not enough testing....

检测数量不够啊

 

Mark

Ganesh protected them

象鼻神庇佑了他们

 

DCBigtime

Doctor: Great news!

Patient: I don't have it?

Doctor: We don't have tests, so you don't have it.

医生: 好消息!

病人: 我没感染?

医生: 我们没法做检测,所以算你没感染。

 

FleetingGame2000

Perhaps they are intentionally under reporting?

Perhaps the deaths in the slums just aren't being accounted for?

也许他们是故意少报?也许贫民窟里的死亡人数没计算在内?

 

OUTSOURCED

The Indian diet is rich in foods that help people become naturally virus resistant.

印度人吃的食物有助于提高他们对病毒的抵抗力。

 

brian

As of 4/16/2020

India: Tests per million pop: 199

USA: Tests per million pop: 9,845

Germany: Test per million pop: 20,629

截止2020.4.16:

印度: 每百万人检测199人次:

美国: 每百万人检测9845人次

德国: 每百万人检测2062人9次

 

Lee

The heat?

因为印度太热吗?

 

AllahTheBeardedSkyDemon

Because people in India don't eat bat soup.

因为印度人不喝蝙蝠汤。

 

Lisa the Bully

India has only tested in TOTAL 200,000 people Of course their rate will reflect that. In the USA we are testing between 150,000 to 200,000 PER DAY

印度只检测了20万人。而美国每天检测15万-20万人。

外文:https://finance.yahoo.com/m/ac410720-8c2a-3047-b31c-d4bdeb19a2ec/why-does-india-have-so-few.html

三泰虎原创译文,禁止转载!:首页 > 美国 » 为何印度的新冠确诊病例和死亡病例如此少

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